SP500 Forecast · Research / Long-term outlook
S&P 500 Forecast 2026–2030: Price Targets & Outlook
Our base-case model places the S&P 500 at approximately 10,700 by the end of 2030. The estimate combines published earnings forecasts for 2027–2028 with explicit assumptions for subsequent earnings growth and valuation. Three scenarios illustrate how different earnings and valuation paths could change the outcome.
- Analysis date
- Reference market close
- 7,659.44
- Base-case year-end 2030 target
- 10,700
- Modelled price change
- ≈ +40%
The reference close is dated, not a live quote. Price change is measured only from that close and excludes dividends. This is SP500 Forecast’s own model, not bank consensus or an output of the trading engine.
Three paths to 2030
Year-end projections for the S&P 500 price index, in points. Select a scenario to show or hide its line.
Earnings contraction, then recovery; lower valuation multiples.
Published near-term EPS estimates, then 8% earnings growth and moderating valuations.
Stronger earnings expansion with sustained valuation multiples.
Dashed horizontal reference: the market close on 16 October 2026: 7,659.44.
| Year-end | Recession scenario | Base case | Bull case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6,700 | 8,100 | 8,700 |
| 2027 | 5,600 | 9,000 | 10,300 |
| 2028 | 6,500 | 9,400 | 11,700 |
| 2029 | 7,300 | 10,200 | 13,000 |
| 2030 | 8,100 | 10,700 | 14,500 |
Points are year-end targets, not a forecast of the market’s path within each year. No verified probabilities are assigned to these scenarios; actual outcomes may fall outside all three. The recession trough in 2027 is an illustrative assumption, not a prediction of when a recession will occur.
Published institutional forecasts
Publication dates and target horizons differ. These observations are not averaged and do not constitute a continuous five-year bank forecast. Citations do not imply a partnership or endorsement.
| Institution | Publication / data date | Target horizon | Published outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 23 September 2026 | Following 12 months | 8,700 2027 EPS: $415; 2028 EPS: $460 |
| Morgan Stanley | 15 May 2026 | Mid-2027 | 8,300 |
| FactSet | 28 September 2026 Data as of 24 September 2026 | Approximately 12 months; bottom-up aggregate of company price targets | 9,275.04 |
| Yardeni Research | 15 September 2026 | End-2026 / mid-2027 / end of the decade | 7,900 / 8,400 / 10,000 |
Publication date is taken from the podcast transcript on the source page.
The September update retains a 10,000 long-term target and describes it as end of the decade. The linked November 2025 discussion provides earlier context; an exact end-2029 deadline is not established by the accessible cited text. Earlier methodology and horizon discussion
Methodology and assumptions
Year-end index target = expected earnings for the following year × assumed forward P/E
The base model borrows only Goldman Sachs’s EPS estimates of $415 for 2027 and $460 for 2028. After 2028, it assumes its own annual EPS growth of 8%. The valuation multiples below are SP500 Forecast assumptions, not Goldman Sachs forecasts. EPS represents index earnings per share in US dollars.
| Year-end | Following-year EPS (USD) | Assumed forward P/E |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 415 | 19.5 |
| 2027 | 460 | 19.5 |
| 2028 | 496.8 | 19 |
| 2029 | 536.544 | 19 |
| 2030 | 579.46752 | 18.5 |
2030 calculation
460 × 1.08³ × 18.5 = 10,720 ≈ 10,700
Calculated from exact inputs, then rounded to the nearest 100 index points for the headline targets.
Recession and bull-case assumptions
All EPS and P/E inputs for these two scenarios are our own assumptions. They are not institutional forecasts.
| Year-end | Recession scenario · EPS | Recession scenario · P/E | Bull case · EPS | Bull case · P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 370 | 18 | 425 | 20.5 |
| 2027 | 350 | 16 | 490 | 21 |
| 2028 | 380 | 17 | 555 | 21 |
| 2029 | 415 | 17.5 | 620 | 21 |
| 2030 | 450 | 18 | 690 | 21 |
This model has no verified historical track record and is not a trading signal. Borrowed estimates, our assumptions and calculated results are distinct.
What could change this outlook?
Earnings growth is the first lever. Revenue expansion supports EPS only if margins hold; wage costs, competition and a changing sector mix can alter that relationship. Our post-2028 8% growth assumption is not assured.
AI investment can lift productivity, but returns depend on adoption, pricing and the cost of deployment. Capital spending and depreciation can pressure margins before revenue or efficiency gains arrive. The model does not treat announced spending as realised profit.
Interest rates and valuation are the second lever. Higher discount rates can compress forward P/E even when earnings rise. Lower rates may support valuations, but a recession can offset that benefit through weaker earnings.
2030 valuation sensitivity
Hold following-year EPS constant at 579.46752 and vary only forward P/E. A change in valuation alone moves the projected index materially.
| Assumed forward P/E | Index points |
|---|---|
| 16 | 9,300 |
| 18.5 | 10,700 |
| 21 | 12,200 |
Questions about the outlook
What is the S&P 500 forecast for 2026?
Our year-end 2026 base case is 8,100 points. The illustrative recession and bull cases are 6,700 and 8,700. These are model projections, not guaranteed outcomes.
What could the S&P 500 reach by 2030?
The base case is 10,700, with recession and bull scenarios of 8,100 and 14,500. Outcomes can lie outside this range; it is not a statistical confidence interval.
Can the S&P 500 reach 10,000?
The base model crosses 10,000 at the year-end 2029 target of 10,200. That depends on the assumed earnings and valuation path, not on a verified probability or a guaranteed timetable.
How is this forecast calculated?
Following-year EPS is multiplied by assumed forward P/E. The base case uses published EPS for 2027–2028, our own subsequent 8% growth assumption and explicit valuation multiples. Targets are rounded to the nearest 100 points.
How reliable are long-term market forecasts?
They are conditional illustrations, not precise predictions. Earnings, valuations and shocks can change substantially over five years. This model has no verified historical performance and should not replace independent research or risk assessment.
Primary sources
Scenario analysis for information only. Not investment advice. Outcomes are not guaranteed.